Marco Rubio's Mission: Confronting Authoritarianism from Havana to Beijing

By Michael Lima.

Originally published in the Bureau, Nov 15. 2024.

Confirming Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State would mark a pivotal shift in U.S. diplomacy, signaling a robust stand against authoritarian regimes worldwide. Known for his unyielding opposition to oppression and his extensive experience on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio would become the first Cuban American and Hispanic to lead U.S. foreign policy. His unique insights into authoritarianism and staunch advocacy for democracy could bring a transformative approach to critical regions, especially Latin America and China.

In Cuba and Latin America, Rubio’s personal and political insights stand out. He has consistently argued that Cuba’s suffering stems not from the U.S. embargo but from its entrenched communist system, rooted in Soviet-era policies and repressive practices. During Trump’s first term, Rubio played a key advisory role in implementing sanctions against the Cuban regime, including restrictions on U.S. companies and citizens engaging in transactions with Cuban military-controlled entities and the designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. If confirmed, Rubio would likely expand this hard-line approach, further isolating the regime and solidifying the U.S. stance against authoritarianism.

A Trump administration with Rubio at the helm of the State Department could introduce transformative policies toward Cuba, making this a particularly critical moment. The autocratic Cuban leadership faces unprecedented challenges: lacking a powerful sponsor like the Soviet Union or Hugo Chavez, dwindling Venezuelan oil shipments, and domestic unrest marked by widespread pro-democracy protests. With over 89% of Cubans reportedly living in extreme poverty and more than 91% opposing the regime, the country faces a perfect storm of economic crises, political opposition, and social instability. A U.S. administration committed to maximum pressure on Cuba could further disrupt any succession plans within the Castro regime and destabilize its grip on power.

However, Rubio’s focus extends beyond Cuba and Latin America. He has called for increased U.S. support for Venezuela’s democratic opposition and, if confirmed, would likely urge continued recognition of Edmundo González as Venezuela's legitimate leader, challenging Maduro’s rule. Rubio’s approach aligns with Trump’s emphasis on deterrence over compromise and on addressing the broader authoritarian alliances across Latin America, where Havana, Caracas, and Managua often operate with the aid of criminal cartels involved in human trafficking and other illicit activities.

Rubio’s perspective on global threats widens with China, which he considers the most significant long-term challenge to U.S. interests. He warns of China’s expanding military and technological capabilities and has criticized the Biden administration’s approach, arguing that China’s quest for global dominance poses a serious threat to the U.S., especially as it establishes a foothold in the Western Hemisphere by controlling critical infrastructure like ports and mines. As Secretary of State, Rubio would likely push for a more assertive stance on China, including strengthening alliances with nations vulnerable to Chinese influence and actively countering its encroachment in Latin America and beyond.

A staunch advocate for internet freedom and democracy, Rubio has already sponsored key legislation supporting these values. His PATRIA Y VIDA Act of 2023, aimed at circumventing authoritarian censorship, could receive renewed backing under a Trump administration. Leveraging technologies like Starlink to empower activists would align with Rubio’s goal of fostering global democratic movements.

U.S.-Canada relations may also see a shift under Rubio. A Trump-Rubio administration would likely diverge from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s engagement-focused approach to Cuba, which critics argue has enabled the Cuban regime’s survival. If Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre wins the next Canadian election, the U.S. may find a stronger ally in challenging authoritarian regimes in Latin America. Poilievre, along with other key Canadian Conservative figures, shares Rubio’s hard-line stance on communism and has voiced support for sanctions against Cuban officials involved in repression.

There is significant potential for a coordinated international effort to isolate authoritarian regimes, with Rubio’s leadership in the State Department opening avenues for joint action. Rubio’s vision of applying maximum pressure on Cuba’s military and government officials, along with diplomatic efforts to free political prisoners, recognize legitimate opposition leaders, and push the regime toward free and democratic elections, could gain support from allies in Canada and potentially the EU.

If confirmed, Rubio’s appointment would represent a new chapter in U.S. foreign policy, defined by an unyielding commitment to counter authoritarian regimes. His approach—focused on maximum pressure and international coordination—would signal a firm response to the growing influence of authoritarianism and reaffirm America’s dedication to supporting global democracy.

Michael Lima is a researcher and director of Democratic Spaces, an NGO seeking solidarity in Canada with human rights defenders and civil society in Cuba. He holds an MA in Latin American history from the University of Toronto.